柬埔寨的平衡术：在中日博弈中寻找发展的新支点

2024年11月19日上午，柬埔寨王国首相洪玛内在和平宫会见了日本-柬埔寨协会会长高桥文明（Takahashi Fumiaki）。

在会谈中，日本-柬埔寨协会会长向首相报告了协会近期工作的进展，包括推动日柬关系及双边合作的重要举措。他提到，协会于2024年4月在柬埔寨开设了常驻办公室，并与柬埔寨政府有关部门合作，建立了三所职业技能培训学校，分别是汽车维修技能培训学校、美容美发技能培训学校，以及信息技术工程技能培训学校。此外，他表示，此次来访的日本企业团共有26家公司，展示了对柬埔寨投资机会的浓厚兴趣，特别是在农业、食品加工及水利工程领域。

会长还提到，协会一直致力于宣传柬埔寨的潜力，吸引更多日本企业，尤其是中小企业（SMEs）来柬投资，同时强调了协会将在工业和人力资源发展领域与柬埔寨政府深化合作的承诺。

对此，洪玛内首相高度评价日本-柬埔寨协会为促进两国关系、尤其是两国私营部门交流所做出的贡献。他指出，日本的私营部门在过去几十年中，对推动柬埔寨的经济增长起到了重要作用。他对协会在柬设立办公室及建立三所职业技能培训学校表示祝贺，并欢迎日本投资企业寻求在柬投资机会。首相进一步指出，协会推动日本中小企业来柬投资的举措，与柬埔寨政府鼓励和提升本地中小企业的战略目标一致，这些企业将有助于形成生产链，支持国内和出口市场。

洪玛内还强调了柬埔寨政府出台的多项政策和措施，旨在鼓励投资、改善商业环境并提高柬埔寨的竞争力。他鼓励日本-柬埔寨协会与柬政府有关部门进一步讨论，制定切实可行的计划，以满足实际需求。

深度分析

问题一：日本是否在2025年试图与中国争夺区域影响力第一的位置？

日本在柬埔寨的投资行为具有战略意义，特别是在农业、食品加工及水利工程这些柬埔寨的关键发展领域。与中国注重大型基础设施项目不同，日本更倾向于通过中小企业（SMEs）参与经济，以点带面、推动可持续发展。这不仅是经济合作的体现，也是一种软实力的输出策略。因此，日本此举可能反映了其试图在东南亚扩大影响力的意图，或与中国形成某种竞争局面，但目前来看其重心是补足中国模式未能完全覆盖的领域。

问题二：柬埔寨的多方平衡外交策略是否真正无偏差？

柬埔寨的外交政策确实展示出一种“有奶便是娘”的灵活性，其优点是能够在多方博弈中为本国谋取最大利益。然而，这种模式的潜在风险在于，可能导致关键性基础设施或经济命脉对外依赖加剧。柬埔寨政府若能利用这种外交灵活性，引入多元化资本、避免对单一国家的过度依赖，将更有利于实现长期发展目标。

问题三：是否需要考量投资来源国的战略目的？

尽管经济合作应以实际利益为核心，但忽视投资方的战略目的可能带来隐患。例如，外资可能通过经济杠杆影响国内政策。因此，柬埔寨在吸引外资的同时，应制定明确的法规，确保国家主权与经济安全不受威胁。

问题四：柬埔寨2025年外交可能有哪些变化？

柬埔寨可能会延续多方平衡的外交策略，同时更加关注与区域内国家的合作，例如东盟内部经济协作。此外，柬埔寨可能会继续利用其地缘优势，深化与中国、日本、美国及欧盟的经济与安全合作，但需警惕因利益冲突而陷入大国竞争的夹缝中。

Conclusion

柬埔寨需在利用多方合作的同时强化内部制度建设，以保障经济与主权利益不被外资战略操控。对于日本和中国的影响力竞争，柬埔寨可通过平衡机制最大化其在区域中的战略价值。

On the morning of November 19, 2024, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet met with Takahashi Fumiaki, President of the Japan-Cambodia Association, at the Peace Palace.

During the meeting, the association president briefed the prime minister on the association’s recent work progress, including its contributions to strengthening Japan-Cambodia relations and bilateral cooperation. He noted that the association had established a permanent office in Cambodia in April 2024 and collaborated with relevant Cambodian ministries to set up three vocational training schools: one for automotive repair skills, another for beauty and cosmetology skills, and the third for information technology engineering skills.

The president also mentioned that the business mission included 26 Japanese companies interested in exploring investment opportunities in Cambodia, particularly in agriculture, food processing, and water resource management.

He further emphasized the association’s commitment to promoting Cambodia’s potential to attract Japanese enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). He affirmed their dedication to strengthening cooperation with the Cambodian government in industrial and human resource development.

In response, Prime Minister Hun Manet praised the Japan-Cambodia Association for its contributions to enhancing Japan-Cambodia relations, particularly in fostering private-sector collaboration. He acknowledged the significant role of Japan’s private sector in boosting Cambodia’s economic growth over the past decades.

The prime minister congratulated the association on establishing an office in Cambodia and the three vocational training schools and welcomed Japanese companies exploring investment opportunities in the country. He highlighted that the association’s efforts to attract Japanese SMEs aligned with the Cambodian government’s strategic goal of promoting local SMEs, which are critical for developing production chains supporting domestic and export markets.

Hun Manet also underscored the Cambodian government’s policies and measures to encourage investment, enhance the business environment, and improve the country’s competitiveness. He encouraged the association to work closely with relevant government agencies to develop concrete plans tailored to Cambodia’s practical needs.

In-depth Analysis in English

The meeting between Prime Minister Hun Manet and Takahashi Fumiaki, President of the Japan-Cambodia Association, highlights Japan’s growing interest in Cambodia’s economic sectors, including agriculture, food processing, and irrigation. With Japan’s increasing business delegations and active promotion of Japanese SMEs in Cambodia, the diplomatic dynamics and strategic goals of both nations come into focus. Let’s analyze the potential implications and future trends of this development.

1. Japan’s Intentions: Competing for Regional Leadership?

Japan’s active engagement in Cambodia can be seen as part of its broader strategy to strengthen its influence in Southeast Asia. This region is becoming a battleground for geopolitical and economic influence, with China already deeply embedded through infrastructure projects, investments, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

By promoting SMEs and establishing vocational training schools, Japan demonstrates a focus on long-term, sustainable development rather than one-off mega-projects. This approach contrasts with China’s emphasis on large-scale infrastructure and reflects Japan’s effort to differentiate itself. This softer approach might also be an attempt to position itself as a more benevolent and sustainable partner, competing for leadership in the region by offering a unique value proposition.

2. Cambodia’s Balanced Diplomacy: A Pragmatic Approach

Cambodia’s strategy of maintaining close ties with multiple global powers, including China, Japan, the U.S., and South Korea, underscores its pragmatic diplomacy. By not aligning exclusively with one power, Cambodia ensures a steady inflow of investment and avoids overdependence on a single partner. This approach reflects the philosophy of “benefitting from all sides” without committing to the geopolitical agendas of any particular nation.

This pragmatic balancing act aligns with Cambodia’s efforts to build a diversified economy. While China’s investments dominate in areas like infrastructure and real estate, Japan’s focus on SMEs, vocational training, and human resource development complements these by fostering grassroots economic growth.

3. The “Milk Is Mother” Philosophy: Should Source of Investment Matter?

The phrase “milk is mother” aptly captures Cambodia’s approach to investment. From a purely economic perspective, Cambodia prioritizes the benefits an investment can bring, regardless of the investor’s intentions. This utilitarian stance is practical for a developing nation, but it also raises questions about long-term implications.

For instance, Japanese SMEs may prioritize sustainable development and local capacity-building, while investments from other nations, including China, might focus on immediate economic gains. Ignoring the motivations behind investments could risk compromising national sovereignty or environmental sustainability if not managed carefully.

4. Possible Changes in Cambodia’s Diplomacy in 2025

Cambodia’s diplomatic strategy in 2025 will likely continue to emphasize balance. However, several trends may emerge:

• Greater Diversification of Partners: Cambodia might intensify its efforts to attract investors from countries like Japan, South Korea, and India, reducing overreliance on China.
• Focus on Human Resource Development: Cambodia’s recognition of Japan’s vocational training efforts signals a shift towards investments that empower its workforce and enhance its competitiveness.
• Increased Regional Collaboration: Cambodia may take on a more active role in ASEAN, leveraging its strategic position and relationships with major powers to promote regional stability and economic integration.

5. Risks and Opportunities of Balanced Diplomacy

Opportunities:

• Economic Growth: Maintaining diverse investment sources ensures robust and steady economic development.
• Global Standing: Balanced diplomacy enhances Cambodia’s reputation as a neutral, stable partner, attracting further investments.

Risks:

• Geopolitical Pressure: Balancing multiple powers could lead to diplomatic tensions, especially if conflicting interests arise.
• Strategic Vulnerabilities: Overdependence on foreign investments, without a clear long-term strategy, could undermine Cambodia’s autonomy.

Conclusion

Japan’s growing presence in Cambodia reflects its strategic intent to counterbalance China’s influence in Southeast Asia. Cambodia’s pragmatic diplomacy allows it to benefit from investments while avoiding entanglement in major power rivalries. However, to ensure sustainable growth and national sovereignty, Cambodia must carefully evaluate the motivations and long-term implications of foreign investments. In 2025, Cambodia will likely refine its diplomatic strategies to solidify its position as a key regional player while safeguarding its economic and political independence.